The Fed Cut 70 Basis Points. The 10-Year Yield Is Right Where It Started.
Three rate cuts since September brought the fed funds rate from 4.33% to 3.64%. The 10-year Treasury yield barely noticed -- it sits at 4.25%, virtually unchanged from a year ago. The yield curve is steepening from the wrong end.
The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate three times since September 2025, bringing the federal funds rate from 4.33% to 3.64% -- a total reduction of 69 basis points. The 10-year Treasury yield has not followed.
In March 2025, the 10-year yield stood at 4.28%. Twelve months and three rate cuts later, it stands at 4.25%. In between, it briefly dipped to 4.06% in October 2025 as the first cut landed, then reversed course and climbed steadily back.
The numbers
| Month | Fed Funds Rate | 10Y Yield | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2025 | 4.33% | 4.28% | +0.05% |
| Sep 2025 | 4.22% | 4.12% | +0.10% |
| Oct 2025 | 4.09% | 4.06% | +0.03% |
| Dec 2025 | 3.72% | 4.14% | -0.42% |
| Mar 2026 |