FOMC Minutes Show Four-Way Split at Powell's Final Meeting, Warsh Inherits Divided Committee
Minutes released May 20 from the Federal Reserve's April 28-29 meeting — Jerome Powell's last as chair — show an 8-4 vote to hold rates at 3.5–3.75%, with four dissents pulling in opposite directions. One governor sought an immediate cut while three regional bank presidents opposed even the statement's hint of future easing, a fracture Kevin Warsh will face at his first FOMC meeting June 16-17.
The Federal Reserve released minutes on May 20 from its April 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the last chaired by Jerome Powell. The committee voted 8 to 4 to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, but the four dissents that accompanied that decision revealed a committee divided along competing views of the economy — the landscape Kevin Warsh will inherit at his first FOMC meeting on June 16-17.
The split vote
The dissents did not line up on one side. They pulled in opposite directions.
Governor Stephen I. Miran voted against the hold, preferring instead to "lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point." The minutes note he cited "concerns that the current policy stance was overly restrictive in a situation of downside risks to the labor market." Miran — a Trump appointee to the Board of Governors — was the lone member calling for an immediate cut.
On the other side, three regional Federal Reserve bank presidents voted for the hold but objected to language in the post-meeting statement. Beth M. Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis), and Lorie K. Logan (Dallas) "supported maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate but did not support inclusion of an easing bias in the statement at this time." Their objection was to any forward signal suggesting rate cuts were coming — they wanted a firmer hold, not a softer one.
The minutes indicate many participants believed "monetary policy was not on a preset course and that future policy decisions would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis," and that "continued elevated inflation readings together with uncertainty...could necessitate maintaining the current policy stance for longer than previously anticipated."
The eight members voting to hold without dissent on either the rate or the statement language were: Powell, Vice Chair John C. Williams, Michael S. Barr, Michelle W. Bowman, Lisa D. Cook, Philip N. Jefferson, Anna Paulson, and Christopher J. Waller.
The economic picture the committee was weighing
The minutes describe a staff economic forecast revised higher on inflation relative to the March meeting, "reflecting incoming data, higher energy prices" and geopolitical factors. Participants noted that "core goods price inflation remained elevated, at least in part reflecting the effects of tariffs." The committee acknowledged that tariff rates could be increased above present levels, creating additional upward pressure.
The staff projected inflation close to 2 percent by the end of 2027 — a two-year horizon — while projecting real GDP to "slightly outpace potential in coming years" and unemployment to remain near its longer-run rate. Job gains "had remained low on average," and the labor market was characterized as stabilizing.
The post-meeting statement issued April 29 cited "developments in the Middle East" as contributing to "a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook" — language that the minutes make clear was itself a point of contention, given three members' resistance to the easing-bias framing paired with it.
No Summary of Economic Projections was released at the April meeting; the FOMC publishes the SEP quarterly, at the March, June, September, and December meetings.
Powell's final meeting
The April 28-29 meeting was the last Powell chaired. His term as Fed chair expired May 15. The Federal Reserve Board named Powell chair pro tempore on May 15, pending Warsh's swearing in while White House paperwork was finalized — the same procedure used in February 2022 when Powell awaited his own second-term confirmation. Powell retains his seat on the Board of Governors.
Warsh was confirmed by the Senate 54-45 on May 13, the closest Fed chair confirmation in modern history. At his April 21 Senate Banking Committee hearing, Warsh described his approach as requiring "a regime change in the conduct of monetary policy" and declined to commit to maintaining the practice of holding a press conference after every FOMC meeting.
What Warsh faces at June 16-17
The June meeting is Warsh's first as chair and is also one of the four annual meetings that includes a Summary of Economic Projections — the document that publishes each voting member's projections for GDP, unemployment, inflation, and the federal funds rate path. It will be the first public read on how FOMC members collectively see the rate path under new leadership.
The April minutes make clear that the committee he inherits is not unified. One member wants to cut now. Three others do not want the statement to signal even a lean toward cutting. Warsh will be managing that fracture from his first meeting, with projections published and a press conference on the record.