More Than 440 Private Colleges at Risk of Closing Within a Decade, Huron Analysis Finds
A Huron Consulting Group analysis of 1,700 private nonprofit colleges finds 442 at risk of closing or merging within 10 years, with 120 at the highest risk. Enrollment has dropped by 2.3 million students since 2010, and a third of private nonprofits posted deficits in 2024.
Of the roughly 1,700 private, nonprofit four-year colleges in the United States, 442 are at significant risk of closing or merging within the next decade, according to an analysis by Huron Consulting Group released this week. More than 120 of those institutions face the very highest risk.
The 442 at-risk colleges collectively serve about 670,000 students.
Huron's analysis measured enrollment trends, tuition revenue, assets, debt, cash on hand, and other financial indicators to build its risk projection. The firm's managing director, Peter Stokes, put it bluntly: "We have too many seats. We have too many classrooms. So over the coming five to ten years, this shakeout is going to take place."
The Numbers Behind the Squeeze
The crisis is structural, not cyclical. Multiple pressures are converging simultaneously:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Enrollment decline since 2010 | 2.3 million fewer students |
| High school-to-college rate | 70% (2016) to 61% (2023) |
| International visa issuances | Down 36% (~100,000 fewer) |
| Private nonprofits posting deficits (2024) | Nearly one-third |
| College leaders worried about long-term viability | 86% |
| Presidents who have discussed merging | One in five |
New England has been hit hardest. More than a third of 44 New England colleges are running out of operating funds. Sterling College in Vermont -- founded in 1958 as a prep school in a town of 1,300 -- is finishing its final semester this spring after enrollment fell from a peak of 120 to roughly 40. It is the seventh private college in Vermont to close since 2016.
Hampshire College in Massachusetts has also announced it will close, citing heavy debt, ongoing deficits, declining enrollment, and the risk of losing accreditation.
The Ripple Effects Are Already Showing
The financial pressure isn't confined to small schools. Major universities are cutting deep:
- University of Southern California: 900+ employee layoffs
- Stanford: 363+ staff cuts
- Northwestern: 425 position eliminations
- DePaul University: 114 employees laid off, art museum closed
- George Washington University: Sold its Virginia campus for $427 million
What Happens to the Students
A study by the State Higher Education Executive Officers Association found that fewer than half of students at closing institutions continue their education elsewhere. Many lose credits they have already earned. Fewer than half eventually earn degrees.
Between 2020 and 2025, approximately 100 private nonprofit colleges closed or merged, affecting nearly 200,000 students and more than $2 billion in endowment assets.
What's Driving It
The demographic cliff -- a decline in the number of 18-year-olds caused by falling birth rates after 2007 -- is the most widely cited factor, but the crisis extends beyond demographics. The college-going rate itself has fallen, meaning a smaller share of a shrinking pool is enrolling. International enrollment, once a lifeline for many private institutions, has dropped sharply amid tighter visa policies. And the perception of whether college is worth the cost has eroded: institutions are spending more on financial aid to attract fewer students, compressing net tuition revenue even when sticker prices rise.
The consulting firm EAB noted that "every major revenue stream and expense category is under pressure at the same time" -- a condition that leaves little room for the kind of strategic investment needed to reverse course.