Tanzania Commission Says 518 Were Killed in October 2025 Post-Election Violence, Far Below Opposition Estimates
A presidential commission of inquiry, chaired by former Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman, delivered its 153-day investigation to President Samia Suluhu Hassan on April 24, 2026, finding 518 deaths and 2,390 injuries during the violence that followed Tanzania's disputed October 29, 2025 general election. The main opposition party CHADEMA rejected the findings; Western diplomats had previously estimated 1,000 to 2,000 deaths.
Tanzania's Presidential Commission of Inquiry into the post-election violence of October 29, 2025 delivered its final report to President Samia Suluhu Hassan at State House on Thursday, April 24, 2026, finding that 518 people died and more than 2,390 were injured during the unrest. Property damage was estimated at more than 125 billion Tanzanian shillings (approximately $50 million).
The commission was chaired by former Chief Justice Mohamed Chande Othman. Its nine members worked 153 days, beginning November 20, 2025, and gathered evidence from 63,603 Tanzanians across 11 regions and 21 districts. 1,323 people testified in person; 553 submitted sworn affidavits.
The breakdown
Of the 518 fatalities:
- Gender and age. 490 were male (94.6%), 28 female (5.4%). 21 were children.
- Civilians vs. security forces. 505 were civilians (96.7%). 16 were members of the security forces.
- Identification. 480 bodies were identified and claimed by relatives. 24 remain unidentified. Six were buried under local government procedures after going unclaimed. Three remain at Muhimbili National Hospital pending DNA analysis.
- Cause. The majority of deaths were from gunshot wounds.
Where the deaths occurred
The commission concentrated fatalities in a small number of regions:
| Region | Deaths |
|---|---|
| Dar es Salaam | 182 |
| Mwanza | 90 |
| Mbeya | 80 |
| Arusha | 53 |
The disputed count
The 518 figure is substantially below prior estimates.
- CHADEMA, Tanzania's main opposition party, has said thousands were killed by security forces. In a statement on Thursday rejecting the commission's work, the party said a government accused of carrying out violent abuses cannot credibly investigate itself.
- Western diplomatic estimates of the death toll had ranged between 1,000 and 2,000.
- Othman himself said at the handover that 518 is "not final and conclusive," noting that some families buried their loved ones without first transporting bodies to morgues — meaning that number cannot capture. The commission recommended further investigation into the use of firearms, citing witness testimony that some victims were shot while inside their own homes.
Political context
The October 29, 2025 election was called amid restrictions on opposition participation. The leader of CHADEMA — Tanzania's main opposition party — was in prison on treason charges at the time of the vote. The presidential candidate for the second-largest opposition party was disqualified from running. President Samia Suluhu Hassan, who assumed the presidency in 2021 after the death of her predecessor John Magufuli, was declared the winner of the October 29 vote with 97-98% support. Days of protests followed, which security forces suppressed with lethal force.
What the government has said it will do
President Samia said on receiving the report: "The destiny of Tanzania is in the hands of Tanzanians themselves." Her office said the government plans to establish an investigative body to pursue criminal referrals tied to the commission's findings, and called on religious leaders to support reconciliation. Samia also announced a separate commission to investigate abductions of government critics that were alleged during and after the 2025 election cycle.
The Chande commission is the seventh Presidential Commission of Inquiry since Tanzanian independence in 1961.