$500 Million in Oil Futures Traded 15 Minutes Before Trump's Iran Post, at 9x Normal Volume
Rep. Ritchie Torres is demanding the SEC and CFTC investigate what he calls 'potentially the largest instance of insider trading in history' -- over $500 million in crude oil bets placed minutes before Trump announced a pause in strikes against Iran on March 22.
At 6:49 a.m. Eastern on March 22, someone placed over $500 million in crude oil futures bets. Fifteen minutes later, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was pausing planned military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices fell more than 10 percent. Whoever made those trades made an enormous amount of money.
The trading volume at that moment was approximately nine times the average for that time of day. The positions anticipated both a drop in oil prices and a rise in equity markets -- precisely what happened after Trump's post.
On April 8, Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) sent a letter to the chairmen of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission demanding an immediate investigation.
"This occurrence may constitute one of the largest instances of insider trading in history."
The Evidence
Torres's letter, citing Reuters reporting, lays out the sequence:
| Time (EST) | Event |
|---|---|
| ~6:49 a.m. | Surge in oil futures volume -- 9x average for that hour |
| ~6:49 a.m. | Large directional bets placed: short oil, long equities |
| ~7:04 a.m. | Trump posts on Truth Social announcing 5-day strike pause |
| Minutes later | Oil drops 10%+, equity futures rise sharply |
The letter notes the combination of three factors that constitute "a textbook basis for insider trading and market manipulation concerns": unusually large positions, precise timing immediately preceding a major geopolitical announcement, and immediate and substantial profitability.
The Pattern
The March 22 trades were not isolated. Torres's letter identifies a troubling pattern: similar trading anomalies preceded Trump's "Liberation Day" tariff pause in April 2025 and U.S. military action in Venezuela earlier this year.
Separately, blockchain analytics firms flagged suspicious activity on prediction markets. On Polymarket, three newly created wallets with no prior transaction history bet on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire when the market was pricing it at just 3-10% probability. The first trade hit the blockchain approximately 8.5 hours before Trump confirmed the deal. Those accounts collectively profited between $484,000 and $663,000.
The same cluster of accounts had previously profited $1.2 million on correctly timed bets related to Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran in late February, according to Bubblemaps, a blockchain analytics firm. The accounts "predicted multiple independent surprise military operations."
The Enforcement Gap
Torres's letter also draws attention to a structural problem: the agencies responsible for investigating these trades have been weakened.
The SEC's top enforcement official resigned after clashing with agency leadership over pursuing cases with ties to the President's circle. The Department of Justice's Public Integrity Section -- created after Watergate specifically to prosecute corruption by government officials -- has been reduced from 36 lawyers to two.
What Torres Is Requesting
The letter makes three specific demands:
- Open a formal investigation into all relevant trading activity in oil, energy, and equity futures markets in the period immediately preceding Trump's March 22 announcement
- Coordinate with the CFTC to obtain comprehensive trading records, including beneficial ownership information for all accounts involved
- Provide a timely public update on the status of any investigation
Torres writes: "At a time of heightened geopolitical instability, public confidence in the fairness of U.S. financial markets is essential. When trades of this magnitude occur immediately before a market-moving government decision, failure to investigate risks undermining not only investor confidence, but the credibility of our regulatory institutions."
Neither the SEC nor the CFTC has publicly responded to the letter.